- U.S. auto gross sales are forecast to complete down 17.3% yr over yr; Cox Car revises its full-year 2022 new-vehicle gross sales forecast to fourteen.4 million devices, down from 15.3 million.
- Annual new-vehicle gross sales tempo in June is forecast to complete close to 13.8 million, up from final month’s 12.7 million tempo, however not up to final yr’s 15.5 million degree.
- June gross sales quantity is predicted to fall 7.5% from three hundred and sixty five days in the past to at least one.2 million devices. Forecast quantity in June, on the other hand, is a 7.5% build up from final month.
ATLANTA, June 28, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — June U.S. new-vehicle gross sales are anticipated to turn a marketplace nonetheless constrained via a loss of delivery, and one this is nearly unchanged since January. In line with the Cox Car June gross sales forecast launched nowadays, the seasonally adjusted annual charge (SAAR) of new-vehicle gross sales this month is predicted to hit 13.8 million, up from final month’s 12.7 million tempo however neatly underneath final yr’s 15.5 million degree.
The present forecast now’s for new-vehicle gross sales volumes to fall underneath the 14.6 million bought in 2020.
The gross sales quantity in June is predicted to complete close to 1.2 million devices, down 7.5% from final yr’s quantity of one.3 million gross sales. Then again, this is a rise of seven.5% from Would possibly’s quantity of just about 1.1 million devices. There may be another promoting day this June than final yr and the similar quantity as final month.
Tight stock continues to negatively have an effect on new-vehicle gross sales. Since June of 2021, per month gross sales quantity has been caught in a good window, with little deviation, averaging 1.1 million devices a month and peaking most effective at 1.3 million in June 2021. With out a transparent timeline for any notable restoration in new-vehicle stock ranges, Cox Car is reducing its full-year 2022 U.S. auto gross sales forecast to fourteen.4 million devices, down from its present forecast of 15.3 million. The present forecast now’s for new-vehicle gross sales volumes to fall underneath the 14.6 million bought in 2020, when the marketplace used to be to start with ravaged via the worldwide COVID pandemic.
“Remaining June, I wrote that the worry in regards to the delivery scenario may no longer be overstated, as we have been in untested territory for the marketplace,” mentioned Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist, Cox Car. “That sentiment stays, as there was no vital shift within the prerequisites at the flooring since final fall. Although financial prerequisites have worsened previously months, the loss of delivery continues to be the best headwind dealing with the automobile {industry} nowadays.”
June and First-Part 2022 Gross sales Forecast Highlights
- In June, mild car gross sales are forecast to achieve 1.2 million devices, down 7.5% from June 2021. Gross sales quantity in June is predicted to upward push just about 181,000 in comparison to Would possibly, or 7.5%.
- The SAAR in June 2022 is predicted to be 13.8 million, underneath final yr’s 15.5 million degree, and up from Would possibly’s 12.7 million tempo.
- 2d quarter 2022 gross sales are forecast to fall 19.3% in comparison to Q2 2021
- First-half gross sales are forecast to be down 17.3% from the similar duration in 2021.
- Normal Motors is forecast to outsell Toyota in Q2, leaping again into the top-seller place.
- Tesla is the one main emblem to extend gross sales yr over yr within the first 1/2. Honda, Nissan and VW all see first-half gross sales drops in way over 30% yr over yr.
| June 2022 New-Automobile Gross sales Forecast | ||||||||
| Gross sales Forecast | Marketplace Proportion | |||||||
| Phase | Jun-22 | Jun-21 | Would possibly-22 | YOY% | MOM% | Jun-22 | Would possibly-22 | MOM |
| Mid-Dimension Automobile | 77,000 | 86,545 | 73,759 | -11.0 % | 4.4 % | 6.4 % | 6.6 % | -0.2 % |
| Compact Automobile | 73,000 | 109,904 | 67,370 | -33.6 % | 8.4 % | 6.1 % | 6.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Compact SUV/Crossover | 165,000 | 202,687 | 154,862 | -18.6 % | 6.5 % | 13.8 % | 13.9 % | -0.1 % |
| Complete-Dimension Pickup Truck | 168,000 | 179,442 | 162,044 | -6.4 % | 3.7 % | 14.0 % | 14.5 % | -0.5 % |
| Mid-Dimension SUV/Crossover | 220,000 | 212,012 | 205,870 | 3.8 % | 6.9 % | 18.3 % | 18.4 % | -0.1 % |
| Grand Overall | 1,200,000 | 1,297,292 | 1,116,503 | -7.5 % | 7.5 % | |||
| Q2 2022 New-Automobile Gross sales Forecast | |||||
| Gross sales Forecast | Marketplace Proportion | ||||
| OEM | Q2 2021 | Q1 2022 | Q2 2022 | 12 months over 12 months | Quarter over Quarter |
| GM | 683,696 | 509,122 | 575,911 | -15.8 % | 13.1 % |
| Toyota | 688,813 | 514,592 | 543,819 | -21.0 % | 5.7 % |
| Ford | 472,260 | 429,174 | 496,248 | 5.1 % | 15.6 % |
| Stellantis | 485,312 | 405,221 | 412,005 | -15.1 % | 1.7 % |
| Hyundai | 470,042 | 322,593 | 372,956 | -20.7 % | 15.6 % |
| Honda | 486,419 | 266,418 | 254,230 | -47.7 % | -4.6 % |
| Nissan | 323,294 | 227,481 | 217,434 | -32.7 % | -4.4 % |
| Tesla | 76,230 | 129,743 | 144,845 | 90.0 % | 11.6 % |
| Volkswagen | 206,473 | 113,540 | 138,661 | -32.8 % | 22.1 % |
| Subaru | 160,824 | 132,346 | 132,996 | -17.3 % | 0.5 % |
| Daimler | 92,443 | 75,939 | 84,245 | -8.9 % | 10.9 % |
| BMW | 105,901 | 80,590 | 83,499 | -21.2 % | 3.6 % |
| Mazda | 105,909 | 82,268 | 68,409 | -35.4 % | -16.8 % |
| Geely | 36,663 | 24,267 | 28,662 | -21.8 % | 18.1 % |
| Tata | 28,265 | 18,193 | 12,910 | -54.3 % | -29.0 % |
| Overall | 4,422,544 | 3,333,174 | 3,568,586 | -19.3 % | 7.1 % |
| First Part 2022 New-Automobile Gross sales Forecast | ||||||
| Gross sales Forecast | Marketplace Proportion | |||||
| OEM | H1 2021 | H1 2022 | Alternate | H1 2021 Proportion | H1 2022 Proportion | Distinction |
| GM | 1,323,102 | 1,085,033 | -18.0 % | 15.9 % | 15.7 % | -0.1 % |
| Toyota | 1,291,879 | 1,058,411 | -18.1 % | 15.5 % | 15.3 % | -0.1 % |
| Ford | 989,971 | 925,422 | -6.5 % | 11.9 % | 13.4 % | 1.5 % |
| Stellantis | 954,963 | 817,226 | -14.4 % | 11.4 % | 11.8 % | 0.4 % |
| Hyundai | 804,944 | 695,549 | -13.6 % | 9.6 % | 10.1 % | 0.4 % |
| Honda | 833,510 | 520,648 | -37.5 % | 10.0 % | 7.5 % | -2.4 % |
| Nissan | 637,078 | 444,915 | -30.2 % | 7.6 % | 6.4 % | -1.2 % |
| Tesla | 145,530 | 274,588 | 88.7 % | 1.7 % | 4.0 % | 2.2 % |
| Volkswagen | 369,534 | 252,201 | -31.8 % | 4.4 % | 3.7 % | -0.8 % |
| Subaru | 321,250 | 265,342 | -17.4 % | 3.8 % | 3.8 % | 0.0 % |
| Daimler | 182,358 | 160,184 | -12.2 % | 2.2 % | 2.3 % | 0.1 % |
| BMW | 183,619 | 164,089 | -10.6 % | 2.2 % | 2.4 % | 0.2 % |
| Mazda | 189,167 | 150,677 | -20.3 % | 2.3 % | 2.2 % | -0.1 % |
| Geely | 64,020 | 52,929 | -17.3 % | 0.8 % | 0.8 % | 0.0 % |
| Tata | 56,215 | 31,103 | -44.7 % | 0.7 % | 0.5 % | -0.2 % |
| Overall | 8,347,140 | 6,901,760 | -17.3 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 0.0 % |
All percentages are in keeping with uncooked quantity, no longer day-to-day promoting charge.
About Cox Car
Cox Car Inc. makes purchasing, promoting, proudly owning and the usage of cars more uncomplicated for everybody. The worldwide corporate’s greater than 27,000 group individuals and circle of relatives of manufacturers, together with Autotrader®, Broker.com®, Dealertrack®, Kelley Blue Ebook®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital®, VinSolutions®, vAuto® and Xtime®, are enthusiastic about serving to thousands and thousands of auto consumers, 40,000 auto broker purchasers throughout 5 continents and plenty of others all through the automobile {industry} thrive for generations to come back. Cox Car is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately-owned, Atlanta-based corporate with annual revenues of just about $20 billion. www.coxautoinc.com
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SOURCE Cox Car
https://markets.businessinsider.com/information/shares/cox-automotive-lowers-full-year-new-vehicle-sales-forecast-as-persistent-supply-problems-continue-to-hold-back-auto-industry-1031555596